Asset management; investments; institutional and retail investors; geography of finance.
4. Naïve Style-level Feedback Trading in Passive Funds, 2021, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming.
Abstract: Passive Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are ideally suited to style-level feedback trading because of their high liquidity, ease of short-selling, and pure play on investment styles. I find strong evidence of short-term style momentum trading in ETFs. Institutional investors that use ETFs do not act as arbitrageurs by trading against style momentum. Institutions, especially less sophisticated ones, are themselves style momentum traders. Moreover, recent style-level demand predicts style-level return reversals. These findings suggest that uninformed positive feedback trading by less sophisticated market participants can destabilize financial markets in the short run.
3. Local Demand Shocks, Return Predictability and Excess Comovement, 2020, Journal of Banking & Finance, 119.
Abstract: I investigate the importance of local demand shocks on excess comovements and return predictability for 4560 twin-pairs of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) from 15 country-pairs. The returns on ETFs traded in the same country comove excessively with one another. These comovements are stronger for funds with greater liquidity and more competitors in the local market. In contrast, comovements are not materially different among ETFs that are attractive to fundamental (factor) investors. A local measure of mispricing, based on price-deviations between ETFs and their foreign peers, strongly predicts ETF return reversals. Betting against local mispricing yields significant abnormal returns of up to 20 percent per year after trading costs.
2. Relative Liquidity, Fund Flows and Short-term Demand: Evidence from Exchange-Traded Funds, 2018, Financial Review, 53(1), 87-115, with Pauline Shum.
Abstract: We show that highly liquid Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), especially those that are more liquid than their underlying basket of securities (i.e., positive relative liquidity), are particularly attractive to investors. Using three definitions of liquidity, we find that relative liquidity predicts net fund flows, as well as inflows and outflows positively and significantly. We further document a liquidity clientele amongst institutional investors: (i) relative liquidity is significantly more important for short- than for long-term investors; and (ii) relative liquidity is inversely related to investors’ average holding duration in the ETFs. These two findings provide evidence that relative liquidity encourages short-term demand.
1. Liquidity, style investing, and excess comovement of exchange-traded fund returns, 2016, Journal of Financial Markets, 30, pp. 27-53.
Presented at the 2015 AFA conference.
Abstract: This study shows that exchange-traded fund (ETF) misvaluation — based on return differentials between ETFs and their net asset values (NAV) — comove excessively across ETFs. Excess comovements are positive (negative) and significant across ETFs in similar (distant) investment styles. Further tests based on return reversals suggest that misvaluation stems primarily from the ETF, rather than the NAV price. Excess comovements are greater for funds with high commonality in demand shocks and attractive liquidity characteristics. These findings are consistent with the idea that the high liquidity of ETFs attracts a clientele of short-horizon noise traders with correlated demand for investment styles.
1. Corporate spillovers via co-agglomerated peers , 2021, with Debarshi Nandy and Yisong Tian
Abstract: We find strong geographic spillovers in corporate policy and performance among co-agglomerated (local and related) firms, including investment, leverage, cash holdings, sales growth, profitability, Tobin’s Q, and stock returns. Top executives at such firms also have shared management styles and similar compensation packages. These patterns are however virtually absent among firms from unrelated industries, even if they are geographically proximate. The spillover effects do not extend beyond the local area, even for firms in related industries, suggesting that co-agglomeration is the driver of corporate spillovers.
2. The Geography of Sub-advisors and its Impact on International Equity Mutual Funds, with Michael Densmore, and Pauline Shum, 2021
Abstract: We study whether sub-advising abroad provides an information advantage that improves the performance of U.S. international equity mutual funds. We find evidence to the contrary. Funds that hire outsourced international sub-advisors underperform on a risk-adjusted basis by up to 135 bps annually. We further demonstrate that the underperformance of outsourced funds is concentrated in those managed by entrenched single sub-advisors, who are less likely to be terminated after poor performance compared to sub-advisors working in teams. Finally, we dissect a fund’s performance by the geography of its sub-advisors and show that internationally outsourced funds underperform primarily in their local holdings.